|Week Ending 2023-09-22|
|Week 2023-09-22||-0.15%||-16.4 Pips|
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Thu 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM GDP Annualized
Thu 09:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Fri 07:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Fri 10:00 AM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (12-mth)
What happened over the week
🇪🇺 Euro Area Consumer Confidence in September preliminary estimate exceed forecast and dropped to -17.8 points compared to previous figure -16 points in August Source: DG ECFIN
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in September exceed forecast and dropped to -13.5 points compared to previous figure 12 points in August
🇺🇸 In the week ending 16 September, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 201K compared to previous figure 221K (revised from 220K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.5% Source: Federal Reserve
🇩🇪 Germany Producer Price Index (12-mth) in August below forecast and dropped to -12.6% compared to previous figure -6% in July
🇪🇺 Euro Area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth) in August below forecast and dropped to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.6% in July Source: Eurostat
🇪🇺 Euro Area Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) in August unchanged at 5.3% compared to previous report in July. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
🇪🇺 Euro Area Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth) in August unchanged at 0.3% compared to previous report in July. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.14% to 1.06. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-09-22, the pair dropped -0.15% or -16.4 pips lower.
Looking ahead, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.06.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.07 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.07. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.06 or 1.06 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.06 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of September, EURUSD is down by -1.83% or -198.3 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
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Philip R. Lane: Disinflation and monetary policy in the euro area Source: European Central Bank
In August 2023, oil prices in euros accelerated significantly Source: INSEE
Further rise in business births registered in August 2023 Source: INSEE
In September 2023, the business climate in France remains stable while the employment climate has bounced back Source: INSEE
U.S. International Transactions, 2nd Quarter 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
In September 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded slightly Source: INSEE
In September 2023, the business climate in the building construction is almost stable Source: INSEE
In September 2023, the business climate has somewhat improved in wholesale trade Source: INSEE
In September 2023, the business climate in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles has retreated Source: INSEE
In September 2023, the business climate remains stable in services Source: INSEE
Production in construction up by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 19-20 FOMC meeting Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
Isabel Schnabel: Challenges for monetary policy at times of stubborn inflation Source: European Central Bank
Annual inflation down to 5.2% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau
Between April and July 2023, rents increased by 0.3% Source: INSEE
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