GBPUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2023-09-22 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.39% | -47.7 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-09-22 | -1.15% | -142.3 Pips | |
||
| September | -3.41% | -432.5 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims 
Thu 01:30 PM GDP Annualized Thu 09:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Fri 07:00 AM GDP (3-mth) Fri 07:00 AM GDP (12-mth) Fri 01:30 PM Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth) Fri 01:30 PM Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (12-mth)
What happened over the week
🇬🇧 U.K. Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth) in August below forecast and rose to 0.4% compared to previous figure -1.2% in July Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence in September below forecast and improved to -21 points compared to previous figure -25 points in August Source: GfK
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in September exceed forecast and dropped to -13.5 points compared to previous figure 12 points in August
🇺🇸 In the week ending 16 September, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 201K compared to previous figure 221K (revised from 220K) Source: Department of Labor
🇬🇧 U.K. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Bank Rate) below forecast and unchanged at 5.25% compared to previous rate 5.25% Source: Bank of England
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.5% Source: Federal Reserve
🇬🇧 U.K. CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (1-mth) in August below forecast and rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -0.4% in July Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Retail Price Index (1-mth) in August below forecast and rose to 0.6% compared to previous figure -0.6% in July Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Producer Price Index – Output (1-mth) n.seasonal adjustment in August unchanged at 0.2% compared to previous report in July.
🇬🇧 U.K. PPI Core Output (12-mth) n.seasonal adjustment in August dropped to 1.6% compared to previous figure 2.2, revised from 2.3% in July Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Retail Price Index (12-mth) in August below forecast and rose to 9.1% compared to previous figure 9% in July Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (12-mth) in August below forecast and dropped to 6.7% compared to previous figure 6.8% in July Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Core CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in August below forecast and dropped to 6.2% compared to previous figure 6.9% in July Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Producer Price Index – Output (12-mth) n.seasonal adjustment in August below forecast and improved to -0.4% compared to previous figure -0.7, revised from -0.8% in July
🇬🇧 U.K. PPI Core Output (1-mth) n.seasonal adjustment in August below forecast and dropped to -0.1% compared to previous figure 0.1% in July Source: Office for National Statistics
What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.39% to 1.22. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-09-22, the pair dropped -1.15% or -142.3 pips lower.
Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.22 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.21 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.24 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.22 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of September, GBPUSD is down by -3.41% or -432.5 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.26 |
| R2 | 1.25 |
| R1 | 1.24 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.23 |
| S1 | 1.22 |
| S2 | 1.21 |
| S3 | 1.20 |
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