EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.38% | -41.7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.59% | -63.6 Pips | |
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| August | -0.37% | -40.5 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment Fri 01:30 PM USD Average Hourly Earnings (1-mth) Fri 01:30 PM USD Average Hourly Earnings (12-mth)
What happened lately
🇺🇸 The Q2 flash estimate for U.S. unit labor costs dropped to 0.9%, down from 4% in Q1. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q2 flash estimate rose to 2.3%, compared to the previous figure of 0.2% in Q1. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 🇺🇸 In the week ending 27 July, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 249K compared to previous figure 235K Source: Department of Labor
The Euro Area unemployment rate in June rose to 6.5% compared to 6.4% in May. Source: Eurostat 🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.5% Source: Federal Reserve 🇺🇸 U.S. Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in June rose to 4.8%, compared to the revised May figure of -1.9%, up from the initial -2.1%. U.S. Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in June increased to 4.8%, up from the revised May figure of -1.9%, which was initially reported as -2.1%. 🇺🇸 In July, the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 45.3 points from 47.4 points in June. 🇺🇸 The U.S. Employment Cost Index (ECI) in Q2 decreased to 0.9% from the previous figure of 1.2% in Q1. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics The Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in July’s flash estimate rose to 2.6% compared to the previous figure of 2.5% in June. Source: Eurostat 🇪🇺 The Euro Area Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth) in July’s flash estimate dropped to -0.2%, compared to 0.4% in June. Source: Eurostat 🇪🇺 The Euro Area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) one-month flash estimate for July dropped to 0% from the previous figure of 0.2% in June. Source: Eurostat The July flash estimate for the Euro Area Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remained unchanged at 2.9% compared to the previous report in June. Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany’s unemployment change in July dropped to 18K from the previous figure of 19K in June. Source: Destatis 🇩🇪 Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6% in July compared to the previous report in June. Source: Destatis
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Thursday dropped -0.38% to 1.07902. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 1.07665 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 1.07427. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 1.08354 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 1.07772 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.59%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.08829 |
| R2 | 1.08591 |
| R1 | 1.08247 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.08009 |
| S1 | 1.07665 |
| S2 | 1.07427 |
| S3 | 1.07083 |
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