AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.31% to 0.65090. Week ending 2024-08-02 moved lower by -0.7%. What you need to know.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.31%	19.8 Pips
Week 2024-08-02	-0.7%	-46 Pips
August	-0.58%	-38 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 05:30 AM RBA Interest Rate Decision (Cash Rate Target)
Thu 03:00 AM RBA Governor Michele Bullock speech
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

In the United States, economic indicators showed signs of deceleration. U.S. Factory Orders in June fell by 3.3%, a significant drop from May’s -0.5%, as reported by the Census Bureau. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that Average Hourly Earnings in July also slowed to 0.2%, down from 0.3% in June. Additionally, the nonfarm payroll employment figures for July dropped considerably to 114,000 from the revised 179,000 in June. The Q2 flash estimate for the U.S. Unit Labor Costs saw a notable decrease to 0.9% from 4% in Q1, while Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity improved to 2.3% from 0.2% in the previous quarter. U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims increased to 249K from 235K in the week ending 27 July. The Fed kept the Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 5.5%. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2 decreased to 0.9% compared to Q1’s 1.2%. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June was 8.184M, down slightly from the previous figure. The U.S. House Price Index for May showed no change from the revised 0.3% in April.

In Australia, the economic data were mixed. The Q2 Producer Price Index rose to 4.8% from 4.3% in Q1, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australia’s imports in June dropped sharply to 0.5% from May’s 3.9%. The trade balance for June improved to 5589M from 5052M (revised from 5773M). Exports in June rose to 1.7% from a revised 1.3% in May. However, Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator fell to 3.8% in June, down from 4% in May, signaling reduced inflationary pressures. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for Q2 dropped to 0.8% from 1% in Q1. Retail Trade Turnover dropped by 0.3% in June, down from 0.6% in May. Building permits in June also fell significantly to -6.5% from a revised figure of 5.7% in May.

Regarding the AUDUSD, the movement of economic indicators from both countries suggests volatility and potential downward pressure on the USD due to weaker-than-expected data, including factory orders, nonfarm payrolls, and hourly earnings. Meanwhile, Australia’s mixed economic data could provide some support to the AUD despite declining retail sales and building permits. However, the stronger trade balance and increases in exports may bolster the Australian dollar. Overall, given the decline in U.S. labor and economic productivity while Australia’s trade figures strengthen, the AUDUSD may see upward pressure.

From X (Twitter)

"The June quarter rise is the same as the 1.0% rise in the March 2024 quarter," Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics

Visit https://t.co/iEiyD7XXWi pic.twitter.com/rjo0kTyLMi

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) July 31, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.31% to 0.65. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-08-02, the pair dropped -0.7% or -46 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.65 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.64 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.66 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.65 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of August, AUDUSD is down by -0.58% or -38 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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