USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.14% to 0.86480. Week ending 2024-08-09 rose 1.02%. What happened.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.14%	-12.3 Pips
Week 2024-08-09	1.02%	87 Pips
August	-1.52%	-133.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the Department of Labor reported a decline in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending August 3rd, with claims falling to 233,000 from the previous figure of 250,000, which was revised from an initial 249,000. This decrease suggests a strengthening labor market, indicating that fewer people are filing for unemployment benefits. This trend can be seen as a positive sign for the U.S. economy, potentially leading to increased consumer spending and economic growth.

Meanwhile, in Switzerland, the Federal Statistical Office reported a significant decline in Real Retail Trade for June, down to -2.2% compared to the revised figure of -0.2% in May, which was initially reported as a growth of 0.4%. This sharp drop in retail trade indicates weakening consumer demand and a potential slowdown in economic activity, which might lead to lower consumer confidence and reduced spending power.

The combination of a strengthening U.S. labor market with a weakening Swiss retail sector contributed to changes in the USDCHF currency pair. On Friday, USDCHF fell by 0.14% to 0.86480 despite the positive U.S. data. Throughout the week ending August 9th, however, USDCHF rose by 1.02%, reflecting the overall stronger position of the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc. The initial claims data supported the dollar’s value, but the decline on Friday might be attributed to profit-taking or other market dynamics, such as geopolitical concerns or technical corrections. The substantial rise earlier in the week underscores the dollar’s relative strength given the backdrop of contrasting economic performance between the two countries.

From X (Twitter)

Sales in the Swiss services sector fall by 3.6% in May 2024 #statistics https://t.co/HPwxe7nP1y pic.twitter.com/oENE1uEr6v

— Swiss Statistics (@swissstatistics) August 6, 2024

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.14% to 0.86. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-08-09, the pair rose 1.02% or 87 pips higher.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.87 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.86. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.85 or 0.85 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.87 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of August, USDCHF is down by -1.52% or -133.4 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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