USDJPY Analysis
| Week Ending 242024-08-30 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 144.52 | 146.25 | 143.91 | 146.18 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.9% | 131.1 Pips |  |
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| Week 242024-08-30 | 1.51% | 217.6 Pips |  |
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| August | -2.38% | -356.8 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 06:00 AM Labor Day 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims 
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
In the United States, various economic indicators showed mixed results. The Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment slightly increased to 67.9 points in August from 67.8 points in July. The 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation remained steady at 3%. The PCE Price Index for July rose to 0.2%, up from 0.1% in June, while the core PCE Price Index remained unchanged at 0.2%. Personal income rose to 0.3% from 0.2% in June, and consumer spending increased to 0.5% in July, up from 0.3% the previous month. The GDP annual rate in the Q2 flash estimate advanced to 3%, up from 2.8% in Q1, while the GDP Price Index rose to 2.5% from 2.3%. Conversely, the PCE Price Index for the quarter dropped marginally to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous quarter. Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation and defense varied significantly, exhibiting peaks and troughs in July.
In Japan, retail trade figures and inflation rates presented a contrary scenario. Large retailer sales in July plummeted to 1% from 7% in June, and the seasonally adjusted retail trade dropped to 0.2% from 0.6% the previous month. Year-on-year, retail trade growth decreased to 2.6% from 3.8% in June. On the inflation front, Tokyo CPI for August rose to 2.6% from 2.2% in July, and the CPI excluding fresh food and energy increased to 2.4% from 2.2%. Additionally, Tokyo’s CPI excluding fresh food grew to 2.4% from 2.2%, while overall unemployment rose to 2.7% from 2.5%.
The movements in the USDJPY are influenced by these economic indicators. The mixed U.S. data, with improved consumer sentiment, personal income, and GDP growth, compounded by a slight rise in inflation, provided some support for the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Japan’s declining retail figures, coupled with inflation and a rise in unemployment, depict economic challenges. This divergence leads to an appreciation of the USD against the JPY, reflected in the USDJPY rising by 0.9% to 146.18000. The overall increase of 1.51% for the week reflects the market’s reaction to stronger U.S. fundamentals against weaker Japanese metrics.
From social media
Japan Sees 2.7% Spike in Consumer Prices as Energy and Food Costs Surge: The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced that Japan’s nationwide Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, excluding fresh food due to its price volatility,… https://t.co/NHrZSZ8khC
— News On Japan (@newsonjapan) August 23, 2024
What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDJPY on Friday rose 0.9% to 146.18. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending ,2024-08-30, the pair rose 1.51% or 217.6 pips higher.
Looking ahead, USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 146.25 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 145.44. On the downside, we are looking at week low 143.91 or 144.64 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 146.25 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of August, USDJPY is down by -2.38% or -356.8 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 149.31 |
| R2 | 147.78 |
| R1 | 146.98 |
| Weekly Pivot | 145.44 |
| S1 | 144.64 |
| S2 | 143.11 |
| S3 | 142.31 |
You might also be interested in:
Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), Second Quarter 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Trade Statistics (First 10 Days of August 2024 [Provisional]) Source: Ministry of Finance Quarterly Financial Report – Retail Source: Census Bureau Speech by Deputy Governor HIMINO in Yamanashi (Japan’s Economy and Monetary Policy) Source: Bank of Japan Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings on July 22 and July 31, 2024 Source: Federal Reserve Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau