AUDUSD on Friday dropped -1.03% to 0.66700. Week ending 2024-09-06 moved lower by -1.74%. What you need to know.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-1.03%	-69.6 Pips
Week 2024-09-06	-1.74%	-117.8 Pips
September	-1.85%	-125.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 02:00 AM Second 2024 United States presidential debate
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM The Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

In the United States, positive indicators emerged as Nonfarm Payroll Employment in August rose to 142,000, a notable increase from the revised down figure of 89,000 in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Additionally, the Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity for Q2 saw an uptick to 2.5% from 2.3% in Q1. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims also showed improvement, dropping to 227,000 for the week ending August 31 from the previous 231,000, as reported by the Department of Labor. In the manufacturing sector, Factory Orders in July surged to 5%, recovering from a -3.3% figure in June collected by the Census Bureau. However, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July revealed a drop to 7.673 million from the revised 7.91 million in June, also from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that international trade in goods for July increased to $6.009 billion, up from June’s $5.589 billion. Despite a drop in exports of goods to 0.7% from the previous 1.7%, imports also declined significantly to -0.8% from 0.5%. Additionally, Australia’s GDP growth in Q2 rose modestly to 0.2% from 0.1% in Q1, although over a 12-month span, GDP growth fell to 1% from 1.1%. In contrast, Building Dwelling Approvals surged to 10.4% in July from -6.5% in June, showing signs of improvement in the construction sector.

The stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, including the rise in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, labor productivity, and factory orders, juxtaposed with the mixed economic data from Australia, has driven bearish sentiment for the AUDUSD pair. The U.S. data points to a robust labor market and manufacturing sector, which supports the strength of the USD. Conversely, despite Australia’s increased international trade and modest GDP growth, the decline in export growth and a drop in annual GDP growth serve as dampening factors for the AUD. Subsequently, AUDUSD dropped by -1.03% to 0.66700 on Friday and moved lower by -1.74% over the week ending September 6, 2024. The upcoming high-impact U.S. events, such as the CPI Inflation Rate and PPI excluding Food and Energy, are likely to provide further direction for the currency pair.

From X (Twitter)

"The Australian economy grew for the eleventh consecutive quarter, although growth slowed over the 2023-24 financial year," Katherine Keenan, ABS head of national accounts.

Visit https://t.co/07qznbHMI4 pic.twitter.com/MTKDLOvSIc

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) September 4, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -1.03% to 0.67. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-09-06, the pair dropped -1.74% or -117.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.66 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.66 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.68 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.67 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of September, AUDUSD is down by -1.85% or -125.8 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau