USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.08% to 0.84280. Week ending 2024-09-06 moved lower by -0.53%. What you need to know.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.08%	-6.7 Pips
Week 2024-09-06	-0.53%	-45.2 Pips
September	-0.49%	-41.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 02:00 AM Second 2024 United States presidential debate
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM The Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

In the United States, several key economic indicators showed mixed results for August. Nonfarm Payroll Employment rose to 142,000 from a revised down value of 89,000 in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The productivity for nonfarm businesses increased to 2.5% in the second quarter from 2.3% in the first quarter. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending August 31 dropped to 227,000 compared to the previous figure of 231,000, reported by the Department of Labor. Moreover, U.S. Factory Orders increased significantly in July, rising to 5% from a sharp decline of -3.3% in June, as per the Census Bureau. However, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a decline to 7.673 million in July from the revised figure of 7.91 million in June, as indicated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In Switzerland, economic growth exhibited a positive trend with the seasonally adjusted GDP for the second quarter rising to 0.7% from 0.5% in the first quarter, as reported by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. On an annual basis, Swiss GDP for the second quarter increased to 1.8%, compared to 0.6% in the first quarter. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed mixed results. The year-over-year inflation rate dropped to 1.1% from 1.3% in July, according to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). However, on a monthly basis, the CPI inflation rate for August increased to 0% from -0.2% in July.

The recent economic data is likely to affect the USD/CHF currency pair. Stronger U.S. payroll and factory order data, coupled with improved productivity, could bolster the U.S. dollar. However, the decline in job openings may create some market concern. In contrast, Switzerland’s improved GDP figures indicate a stronger economy, potentially strengthening the Swiss franc. Additionally, the mixed CPI data may not put much pressure on the Swiss National Bank to alter its current monetary stance. Overall, the USDCHF might see heightened volatility due to the mixed economic signals, but the broader dollar strength or weakness will likely hinge on upcoming significant U.S. events like the CPI data, unemployment claims, and the presidential debate. The dollar’s movement will be closely watched against a relatively resilient Swiss franc, giving traders many cues for potential market shifts.

From X (Twitter)

Consumer prices remained stable in August #statistics https://t.co/bN4fSqSYzC pic.twitter.com/db2r3uvSOi

— Federal Statistical Office FSO (@swissstatistics) September 3, 2024

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.08% to 0.84. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-09-06, the pair dropped -0.53% or -45.2 pips lower.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.84 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.83 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.85 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.84 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of September, USDCHF is down by -0.49% or -41.4 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2024: Swiss economic growth above average Source: State Secretariat for Economic Affairs
Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2024 – Consumer prices remained stable in August Source: Federal Statistical Office
Swiss retail trade turnover rose by 1.5% in July Source: Federal Statistical Office