NZDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | -0.05% | -3.2 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.43% | 26.6 Pips |  |
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| September | -1.16% | -72.6 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections
Wed 11:45 PM NZD GDP (3-mth)
What happened lately
In the United States, industrial production experienced a notable rebound in August, increasing by 0.8% after a decline of -0.6% in July. This is indicative of renewed strength in the industrial sector. However, other economic indicators presented a mixed picture. The Retail Trade Control Group for August saw a slight decline, coming in at 0.3% compared to a revised figure of 0.4% in July, as per the Census Bureau. Additionally, the data for Monthly Retail Trade excluding Automobile showed a decrease to 0.1% from 0.4% in the previous month. These numbers collectively suggest that while industrial production is gaining momentum, consumer spending—particularly in the retail sector—is showing signs of modest weakening.
Concerning NZDUSD movements, several high-impact economic events are anticipated. On Tuesday, NZDUSD experienced a slight drop of -0.05%, closing at 0.61907. This minor decline reflects market uncertainties ahead of significant announcements. Economic events scheduled for Wednesday include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and subsequent interest rate projections. These announcements are crucial as they will directly influence the USD’s performance. Simultaneously, New Zealand’s GDP data for the recent quarter will be released, providing insights into the state of its economy.
The recovery in U.S. industrial production suggests potential upward pressure on the USD, given the economic activity’s positive momentum. However, the mixed consumer spending data might temper this optimism. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance or raises interest rates, the USD will likely strengthen, which could cause further pressure on the NZDUSD pair. Conversely, should the Fed adopt a dovish tone, the NZD could find some relief. The release of New Zealand’s GDP data will also play a pivotal role. If the GDP growth surpasses expectations, it could bolster the NZD, providing a counterbalance against a potentially stronger USD. Therefore, the upcoming economic data releases will be critical in determining the near-term trajectory of the NZDUSD exchange rate.
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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?
NZDUSD on Tuesday dropped -0.05% to 0.61907. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.61738 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.6157. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.62107 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.61754 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.62444 |
| R2 | 0.62276 |
| R1 | 0.62091 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.61923 |
| S1 | 0.61738 |
| S2 | 0.6157 |
| S3 | 0.61385 |
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