AUDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-09-20 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| Performance | ||||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | |||
| Friday | -0.07% | -4.9 Pips |  |
|||
| Week 2024-09-20 | 1.37% | 92.2 Pips |  September |
0.15% | 10.2 Pips |  |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 05:30 AM RBA Monetary Policy Decision (Cash Rate Target) Wed 02:30 AM Monthly CPI Indicator (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 01:30 PM GDP annual rate Thu 02:20 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech Fri 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey saw an improvement in September, rising to 1.7 points from -7 points in August, according to the Philadelphia Fed. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending on 14 September dropped to 219K from a revised figure of 231K as per the Department of Labor. Additionally, revised projections from the Federal Reserve indicate a drop in interest rate projections to 4.4% from 5.1%, and the Federal Funds Rate decision was below forecast, decreasing to 5% from 5.5%. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau reported an increase in Building Permits (1-month) to 1.475 million in August from a revised 1.406 million in July, and a rise in Housing Starts (1-month) to 1.356 million from a revised 1.237 million in July.
In Australia, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicated that the labor force participation rate in August remained unchanged at 67.1% compared to July. The Monthly Employment Change for August dropped to 47.5K from 58.2K in July, while full-time employment saw a significant decrease to -3.1K from a revised 64.8K (originally 60.5K) in July. The Labour Force Unemployment Rate also remained steady at 4.2% in August.
The mix of these economic indicators from both the United States and Australia can impact the AUDUSD currency pair. The U.S. shows signs of economic strengthening with improvements in manufacturing outlook and housing statistics, alongside a lowering trend in unemployment claims. The unexpected drop in the Fed’s interest rate projection and decision, while supportive of economic activity, suggests a future dovish stance that typically weakens the USD. Conversely, Australia’s stagnant labor market indicators with a drop in full-time employment can weigh negatively on the AUD. However, stable participation and unemployment rates offer some support.
Overall, the AUDUSD moving dynamics will be influenced by upcoming events such as the RBA’s Monetary Policy Decision and Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator, alongside crucial U.S. economic releases like GDP, initial unemployment claims, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech. The simultaneous influence of reduced U.S. interest rates and Australia’s labor market weakness provides potential volatility for AUDUSD, necessitating close attention to both central banks’ decisions and economic data releases.
From X (Twitter)
“The number of unemployed people fell by around 10,000, while the number of employed people grew by around 47,000, in August," Kate Lamb, ABS head of labour statistics
Visit https://t.co/0Rm3BsT5N6 pic.twitter.com/vx8AfpFN7u
— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) September 19, 2024
What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.07% to 0.68. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-09-20, the pair rose 1.37% or 92.2 pips higher.
Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.69 (WR1) with break above could target 0.69 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.67 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.68 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of September, AUDUSD is up by 0.15% or 10.2 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.69 |
| R2 | 0.69 |
| R1 | 0.69 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.68 |
| S1 | 0.68 |
| S2 | 0.67 |
| S3 | 0.67 |
You might also be interested in:
U.S. International Transactions, 2nd Quarter 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 17-18 FOMC meeting Source: Federal Reserve Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau