USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | -0.6% | -50.8 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.64% | -53.9 Pips |  |
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| September | -0.55% | -46.8 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 08:30 AM CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision (Policy Rate)
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate Thu 02:20 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
What happened lately
The latest data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) showed that the U.S. House Price Index increased by 0.1% in July, a slight improvement from the previous figure of -0.1% in June. This indicates a modest recovery in house prices after a period of stagnation, reflecting a stabilizing housing market. The positive shift in the House Price Index, albeit minimal, underscores a gradual improvement in economic conditions within the housing sector.
On the upcoming economic front, two highly impactful events are scheduled. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its interest rate decision at 8:30 AM, which is anticipated with significant market uncertainty due to recent economic dynamics in Switzerland. Later in the day, at 1:30 PM, the United States will release its GDP annual rate, followed by a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 2:20 PM. Both U.S. events are particularly crucial as they will provide deeper insights into the country’s economic health and monetary policy direction.
Given these economic activities, the USDCHF pair might experience heightened volatility. The positive U.S. House Price Index data alone appears insufficient to lift the USDCHF, especially as the pair dropped by 0.6% to 0.84231 on Tuesday. Investors are likely positioning themselves ahead of the Swiss interest rate decision and the U.S. GDP report. Should the SNB decide to maintain or hike interest rates, the Swiss Franc might strengthen, putting further downward pressure on the USDCHF. Conversely, if the U.S. GDP growth exceeds expectations or Jerome Powell signals a more hawkish stance, the USD could gain strength, potentially balancing or reversing recent losses in the USDCHF pair.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Tuesday dropped -0.6% to 0.84231. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.84001 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.8377. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.84900 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.84220 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.85361 |
| R2 | 0.8513 |
| R1 | 0.84681 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.8445 |
| S1 | 0.84001 |
| S2 | 0.8377 |
| S3 | 0.83321 |
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