Audusd rises 1.02% to 0.68992 amid mixed U.S. economic data and cooling Australian inflation

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	1.02%	69.5 Pips
Week to-date	1.31%	89 Pips
September	1.52%	103.2 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

Economic data for the United States in recent months has shown mixed indicators. In the second quarter of 2024, U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0%, according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Additionally, U.S. Pending Home Sales saw a rise of 0.6% in August after a significant decline of -5.5% in July. Durable Goods Orders, excluding Transportation, also improved, registering a 0.5% increase in August, up from a revised -0.2% in July, as reported by the Census Bureau. However, Durable Goods – New Orders in August remained stagnant at 0%, a sharp drop from a revised 9.9% in July. Furthermore, Durable Goods Orders, excluding Defense, fell to -0.2% from a revised July figure of 10.3%. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, excluding Aircraft, showed a modest increase of 0.2% in August, compared to a revised -0.1% in July.

In terms of employment, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending on September 21 decreased slightly to 218K from 219K, according to the Department of Labor. On the housing front, new-home sales in August experienced a decline of -4.7%, following a 10.6% increase in July. These mixed signals suggest that while the U.S. economy is growing robustly in some areas, others show signs of deceleration.

Conversely, Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator for August showed a significant drop to 2.7% from 3.5% in July, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This reduction in inflation suggests a cooling down of price pressures in Australia, which may impact monetary policy decisions moving forward.

The recent economic data from both countries had a notable impact on the AUDUSD exchange rate. The U.S. indicators, particularly the strong GDP growth and encouraging employment data, signal a resilient economy, potentially leading to a stronger U.S. dollar. However, the weaknesses in durable goods orders and new home sales present a more complicated picture, possibly tempering the dollar’s strength. The decline in Australia’s CPI to 2.7% points to reduced inflationary pressures, which could leave room for the Reserve Bank of Australia to adopt a more dovish stance. This combination of a generally strong U.S. economic backdrop and a cooling Australian inflation rate contributed to the rise of the AUDUSD by 1.02% to 0.68992 on Thursday.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday rose 1.02% to 0.68992. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.69298 with break above could target R2 at 0.69603 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.68185 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.69047 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.31% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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