USDCAD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.04% | -6 Pips | |||
| Week to-date | -0.69% | -94.2 Pips |  |
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| September | -0.14% | -18.4 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
What happened lately
In the United States, recent economic data presents a mixed picture. The U.S. GDP saw an encouraging increase at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2 2024, indicating robust economic performance as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Additionally, Pending Home Sales in August showed a recovery, rising by 0.6% following a significant decline of -5.5% in July. The Census Bureau reported positive trends in durable goods orders, with orders excluding transportation climbing to 0.5% from -0.2% in July. In contrast, new orders for durable goods stagnated at 0% in August, a sharp drop from a 9.9% rise in July. This decline in new orders, coupled with a drop in durable goods orders excluding defense to -0.2%, could signal waning manufacturing activity.
In the labor market, initial unemployment claims showed slight improvement, decreasing to 218,000 from 219,000 in the week ending 21 September, according to the Department of Labor. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft edged up by 0.2% in August, reflecting modest growth from the previous month’s revised -0.1%. Meanwhile, new home sales declined by -4.7% in August, a sharp contrast to the 10.6% increase observed in July.
The recent economic data releases have had a nuanced impact on the USDCAD exchange rate, resulting in a minimal drop of -0.04% to 1.34700 on Thursday. The strength in the U.S. GDP and the improvement in labor market indicators typically support a stronger USD. However, the mixed signals from durable goods orders and the decline in new home sales introduce uncertainty into the economic outlook. Such uncertainty may have contributed to the slight depreciation of the USD against the CAD. Traders are likely focusing on upcoming economic events, specifically the PCE Price Index excluding food and energy, to gauge future trends in inflation and monetary policy that could further influence the USDCAD exchange rate.
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What can we expect from USDCAD today?
USDCAD on Thursday dropped -0.04% to 1.34700. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks as
A close below 1.34530 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.69%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.35253 |
| R2 | 1.35075 |
| R1 | 1.34887 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.34709 |
| S1 | 1.34521 |
| S2 | 1.34343 |
| S3 | 1.34155 |
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