AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.21% to 0.69020. Week ending 2024-09-27 rose 1.35%. What’s going on.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.21%	14.7 Pips
Week 2024-09-27	1.35%	92 Pips	September	1.56%	106.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Tue 01:30 AM Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 AM International Trade in Goods (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

In the United States, the Index of Consumer Sentiment rose slightly in September to 70.1 points from 69 points in August, indicating a mild improvement in consumer confidence (University of Michigan). Consumer Spending (PCE) in August slipped to 0.2% from 0.5% in July, denoting a slowdown in consumer expenditures (Bureau of Economic Analysis). The PCE Price Index for one month also saw a reduction to 0.1% from 0.2% in July. However, excluding food and energy, the 12-month PCE Price Index increased marginally to 2.7% from 2.6% in July, suggesting a persistent underlying inflation (Bureau of Economic Analysis). The U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2 2024, showing robust economic growth (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Durable Goods Orders in August were stagnant at 0%, a steep decline from 9.9% in July, reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing (Census Bureau). Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week ending 21 September fell slightly to 218K from 219K, staying relatively stable (Department of Labor). The U.S. House Price Index in July improved to 0.1% from -0.1% in June, suggesting some stability in the housing market (FHFA).

In Australia, the Monthly CPI Indicator for August fell to 2.7% over 12 months, down from 3.5% in July, indicating a significant decrease in inflation (Australian Bureau of Statistics). The Reserve Bank of Australia left the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.35%, signaling a steady monetary policy stance (Reserve Bank of Australia).

The implications for AUDUSD from these economic events are multifaceted. The improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment and steady GDP growth support a stronger USD. However, the slowdown in consumer spending, minor declines in inflation measures, and flat durable goods orders may temper this strength. Growth in U.S. housing prices and stable unemployment claims also contribute positively to the USD’s outlook. Conversely, Australia’s significant drop in the CPI indicates easing inflationary pressures, which when combined with the steady cash rate, may reduce the attractiveness of the AUD. The overall impact results in a balanced outlook for AUDUSD, with recent gains potentially reflecting these mixed signals. The upcoming economic events, such as the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech and U.S. Nonfarm Payroll data, will be crucial in determining future movements.

From X (Twitter)

“Annual inflation was 2.7% in August, down from 3.5% in July, and is the lowest reading since August 2021,” Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics

Visit https://t.co/eWpz5SMDV7 pic.twitter.com/w1FoQ6j0w9

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) September 25, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.21% to 0.69. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-09-27, the pair rose 1.35% or 92 pips higher.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.68.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.70 (WR1) with break above could target 0.70 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.68 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.69 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of September, AUDUSD is up by 1.56% or 106.2 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Second Quarter 2024 and Annual Update Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Powell, Opening Remarks Source: Federal Reserve
Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
U.S. International Investment Position, 2nd Quarter 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau