GBPUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-09-27 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.34 |
| Performance | ||||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | |||
| Friday | -0.22% | -29.7 Pips |  |
|||
| Week 2024-09-27 | 0.44% | 59 Pips |  September |
1.57% | 206.8 Pips |  |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 07:00 AM GDP (3-mth)
Mon 06:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
In the United States, the Index of Consumer Sentiment improved slightly in September, rising to 70.1 points from 69 points in August, as reported by the University of Michigan. The Bureau of Economic Analysis noted a decline in Consumer Spending (PCE) for August, which dropped to 0.2% from 0.5% in July. The PCE Price Index for August also decreased to 0.1% from 0.2% in July, though the PCE Price Index excluding food and energy saw a slight increase, reaching 2.7% over 12 months compared to 2.6% in July. The GDP increased by 3.0% in Q2 2024, according to the third estimate. However, new orders for Durable Goods in August fell sharply to 0% compared to a revised 9.9% in July, as per the Census Bureau. Moreover, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims in the week ending 21 September dropped to 218,000 from 219,000 the previous week. The House Price Index for July also showed improvement, rising to 0.1% from -0.1% in June, based on data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
The recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture that impacted the GBPUSD exchange rate. The minor improvement in consumer sentiment and the GDP growth provide a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, suggesting underlying resilience. Nonetheless, the drop in consumer spending and the sharp decline in durable goods orders point to potential weaknesses. The decrease in the PCE Price Index indicates diminished inflationary pressure, which can influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The combination of these data points led to the depreciation of GBPUSD on Friday by -0.22% to 1.33730, even though the overall week ending 27 September saw a modest gain of 0.44%. Upcoming events like the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and the Nonfarm Payroll Employment report will be significant for future market direction. If U.S. data surpasses expectations, it could strengthen the USD, potentially pushing GBPUSD lower. Conversely, disappointing U.S. data or a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve could support a higher GBPUSD rate.
From X (Twitter)
The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain #BankRate at 5%. Find out more: https://t.co/gtDedxNasg pic.twitter.com/hEv9kiIuDl
— Bank of England (@bankofengland) September 19, 2024
What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.22% to 1.34. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-09-27, the pair rose 0.44% or 59 pips higher.
Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.34 (WR1) with break above could target 1.35 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.33 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.34 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of September, GBPUSD is up by 1.57% or 206.8 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.36 |
| R2 | 1.35 |
| R1 | 1.34 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.34 |
| S1 | 1.33 |
| S2 | 1.33 |
| S3 | 1.32 |
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