USDCAD on Friday rose 0.2% to 1.35120. Week ending 2024-09-27 moved lower by -0.38%. What happened.

USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.2%	26.9 Pips
Week 2024-09-27	-0.38%	-52.2 Pips
September	0.17%	22.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

In the United States, several key economic indicators displayed a mix of positive and negative trends. The Index of Consumer Sentiment in September improved slightly to 70.1 points from 69 points in August, according to the University of Michigan. However, consumer spending (PCE) in August decreased to 0.2% from 0.5% in July, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The same source noted that the U.S. PCE Price Index for August dropped to 0.1% from 0.2% in July, although the PCE Price Index excluding food and energy rose to 2.7% over 12 months, up from 2.6% in July. GDP growth in Q2 2024 was strong, recorded at an annual rate of 3.0%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Durable goods orders in August, however, experienced stagnation, recording 0% compared to a revised 9.9% in July per the Census Bureau. Initial unemployment claims fell slightly to 218K for the week ending September 21 from 219K, while the House Price Index in July increased to 0.1% from -0.1% in June, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

In Canada, GDP for July increased to 0.2% from a flat 0% in June, according to Statistics Canada, indicating moderate economic growth.

The mixed economic data from the U.S. and the slight improvement in Canadian GDP had nuanced implications for the USDCAD currency pair. The pair rose 0.2% to 1.35120 on Friday but showed a weekly decline of -0.38% for the week ending September 27, 2024. The modest improvements in U.S. consumer sentiment and the House Price Index were counterbalanced by weaker consumer spending and stagnation in durable goods orders, affecting the strength of the USD. Concurrently, the slight improvement in Canada’s GDP for July provided upward pressure on the CAD. Upcoming U.S. events, including a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims on Thursday, and Nonfarm Payroll Employment data on Friday, could further influence the USDCAD depending on their outcomes.

From X (Twitter)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.2% in July 2024, following essentially no change in June. https://t.co/iTnMxO7TxF pic.twitter.com/8Tt3HDtXY4

— Statistics Canada (@StatCan_eng) September 27, 2024

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday rose 0.2% to 1.35. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-09-27, the pair dropped -0.38% or -52.2 pips lower.

Looking ahead, USDCAD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.35 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.35. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.34 or 1.34 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.34 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of September, USDCAD is up by 0.17% or 22.9 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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