USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | 0.05% | 4.1 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.69% | 58.3 Pips |  |
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| October | 0.05% | 4.5 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 07:30 AM CHF Swiss CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
What happened lately
The U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported an increase in job openings for August, rising to 8.04 million from a revised 7.711 million in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This signals a robust labor market with increased demand for workers, which could lead to greater economic activity and possibly wage inflation as companies compete for talent. Additionally, the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for September climbed slightly to 46.6 points from 46.1 points in August, reflecting marginal improvement in business conditions in the manufacturing sector, although it remained below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
In Switzerland, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) reported that retail trade real turnover in August saw an annual rise of 3.2%, up from the revised 2.9% figure in July. This indicates an improvement in consumer spending, which is a positive sign for the Swiss economy. Consumer spending is a central driver of economic growth, and sustained increases could bolster overall economic performance.
The economic data reveals strengths in both the U.S. and Swiss economies, albeit in different areas. The increase in job openings and a slight improvement in the manufacturing index in the U.S. could foster expectations of continued economic growth and potentially lead to firmer interest rate policies from the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the rise in retail trade in Switzerland indicates resilient consumer demand, which is an essential factor for the country’s economic resilience.
The news could affect the USDCHF exchange rate in several ways. The rise in U.S. job openings and the slight improvement in the manufacturing index may bolster the strength of the U.S. dollar, reflecting a positive outlook for the U.S. economy. Conversely, stronger retail turnover in Switzerland is a favorable indicator for the Swiss franc. However, given that USDCHF rose 0.05% to 0.84633 on Tuesday, it appears that the market had already partially priced in these developments. Looking ahead, the upcoming high-impact Swiss CPI Inflation Rate report could further influence the USDCHF pair. If Swiss inflation data comes in higher than expected, it may strengthen the Swiss franc, potentially offsetting some of the U.S. dollar’s recent gains.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Tuesday rose 0.05% to 0.84633. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.84866 with break above could target R2 at 0.851 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.84309 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.84821 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.85378 |
| R2 | 0.851 |
| R1 | 0.84866 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.84588 |
| S1 | 0.84354 |
| S2 | 0.84076 |
| S3 | 0.83842 |
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