Audusd shows marginal rise as mixed economic data affects market sentiment

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.04%	2.6 Pips
Week to-date	-0.52%	-35.7 Pips
October	-0.47%	-32.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 02:30 AM AUD International Trade in Goods (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In the United States, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August reported an increase in job openings to 8.04 million, up from a revised figure of 7.711 million in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise indicates a strong demand for labor and suggests that the labor market remains resilient, which can be seen as a positive sign for the U.S. economy.

In Australia, the Building Dwelling Approvals decreased significantly by 6.1% in August, following a previous increase of 10.4% in July, as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This decline points toward a potential cooling in the housing market, raising concerns about the construction sector’s future outlook. However, on a more optimistic note, Australia’s retail trade turnover, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rose by 0.7% in August, up from 0% in July, as noted by the same statistical authority. This increase suggests a rebound in consumer spending, potentially offsetting some negative impacts of the construction downturn.

The marginal rise of 0.04% in the AUDUSD to 0.68826, with the currency pair in consolidation, reflects a mixed sentiment in the market. The rise in Australian retail turnover may support the Australian dollar, but this support may be limited because of declining dwelling approvals. In contrast, the increase in U.S. job openings reinforces the strength of the U.S. economy, which may lead to expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, thereby strengthening the U.S. dollar. The upcoming high-impact events, such as AUD International Trade in Goods and USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment, will likely play a crucial role in determining the future direction of the AUDUSD pair. A strong U.S. payroll report could further favor USD strength, while positive Australian trade data could lend support to the AUD.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Wednesday rose 0.04% to 0.68826. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.68666 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.69155 or trades above daily pivot 0.6891. Break above could target R1 at 0.69071. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.68666 (S1) and daily low of 0.68750 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.69155 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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