Usdchf rises as US job openings increase and Swiss retail turnover grows

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.47%	39.5 Pips
Week to-date	1.11%	92.9 Pips
October	0.53%	44.5 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 07:30 AM CHF Swiss CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In the United States, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August revealed an increase to 8.04 million job openings, marking a rise from the revised 7.711 million in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This upward trend suggests a robust labor market environment as businesses continue to seek talent to fill various positions. An increase in job openings indicates that companies are optimistic about the future and potentially planning expansions or increased operations. This data may guide future policy-making decisions by the Federal Reserve regarding employment and interest rates, as it reflects underlying economic growth.

In Switzerland, retail trade real turnover saw an increment in August, with a 12-month growth rate of 3.2%, as per the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). This is an increase from the revised rate of 2.9% witnessed in July. The increase in retail turnover indicates a positive trend in consumer spending within the Swiss economy, hinting at a boost in consumer confidence. Retail trade is a significant indicator of economic health as it reflects the consumer sentiment and spending patterns, which in turn can be driven by factors such as disposable income, employment, and economic optimism.

Given the recent economic reports, the USDCHF exchange rate has seen an upward movement with a 0.47% increase to 0.84979. The rise in U.S. job openings reflects a strong labor market, which can strengthen the U.S. dollar due to potential rate hikes the Federal Reserve might consider to control economic growth and inflation. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s retail trade growth presents a solid backdrop for the Swiss franc but the impact is relatively moderate compared to labor market shifts. Furthermore, upcoming high-impact economic events, such as the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment report and Swiss CPI Inflation Rate, might lead to further volatility. A positive employment report in the U.S. could boost the dollar further, while significant inflationary developments in Switzerland could influence the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy decisions, impacting the Swiss franc accordingly. Overall, these dynamics provide a mixed outlook, but current financial and economic signals seem to favor a slightly stronger USD against the CHF in the short term.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Wednesday rose 0.47% to 0.84979. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Wednesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.8521 with break above could target R2 at 0.85441 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.84484 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.85078 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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