USDJPY Analysis
| Week Ending 242024-10-04 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 143.71 | 149.00 | 143.02 | 148.68 |
| Performance | ||||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | |||
| Friday | 1.25% | 184.199 Pips |  |
|||
| Week 242024-10-04 | 4.13% | 589.599 Pips |  October |
3.46% | 496.899 Pips | |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index (12-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, the economic indicators for September demonstrate ongoing improvements in the labor market, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2% in the previous month. Furthermore, the U-6 Total, a broader measurement of labor underutilization, also fell slightly to 7.7% from 7.9%. Nonfarm Payroll Employment saw a significant rise to 254,000, surpassing the adjusted August figure of 159,000. Despite this improvement, the U.S. Average Hourly Earnings for the month saw a slight decrease to 0.4% from a prior 0.5%, though the annual rate did increase to 4% from 3.9%. The Census Bureau reported a drop in new orders for manufactured goods by 0.2% in August, following a robust increase in July by 4.9%. Meanwhile, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 225,000. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated an increase in job vacancies to 8.04 million, suggesting a strong demand for labor despite the uptick in unemployment claims.
In Japan, the economic indicators remained relatively stable, as observed by the Statistics Bureau of Japan. The unemployment rate in August saw a marginal decline to 2.5% from 2.7% in July. Additionally, the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, as reported by the Bank of Japan, remained unchanged at 13 points through the third quarter. This indicates consistent sentiment among large manufacturers, despite fluctuations in other economic activities.
The recent data showing improvements in the U.S. labor market, alongside the stable economic indicators from Japan, have implications for the USDJPY exchange rate. The rise in the USDJPY pair, notably by 1.25% on Friday and 4.13% for the week ending October 4, can be attributed to the favorable U.S. economic data bolstering the U.S. dollar’s strength against the Japanese yen. Anticipation of upcoming events such as the FOMC Meeting Minutes, CPI Inflation Rate, and Producer Price Index are high-impact events that could further affect the USDJPY pair. If the U.S. economic trends continue to display strength, it could lead to sustained upward pressure on the USDJPY, provided there are no significant changes in Japan’s economic stance. The market will keenly observe these events for cues on future interest rate trends and monetary policy actions that might affect currency valuations.
From social media
The BOJ released the Summary and Outline of the September 2024 Tankan.https://t.co/4QjHciXsWg pic.twitter.com/jIp8i87mXL
— Bank of Japan (@Bank_of_Japan_e) October 1, 2024
What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDJPY on Friday rose 1.25% to 148.68. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending ,2024-10-04, the pair rose 4.13% or 589.599 pips higher.
Looking ahead, USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 150.78 (WR1) with break above could target 152.88 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 143.02 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 149.00 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of October, USDJPY is up by 3.46% or 496.899 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 156.76 |
| R2 | 152.88 |
| R1 | 150.78 |
| Weekly Pivot | 146.90 |
| S1 | 144.80 |
| S2 | 140.92 |
| S3 | 138.82 |
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Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau Personal Consumption Expenditures by State, 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Tankan (Sept.): Comprehensive Data Set Source: Bank of Japan Tankan (Sept.): Summary and Outline Source: Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on September 19 and 20, 2024 Source: Bank of Japan Powell, Economic Outlook Source: Federal Reserve U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau