USDCAD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | 0.23% | 31.9 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 1.73% | 233.9 Pips | |
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| October | 1.6% | 216.1 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM CAD Labour Force Net Change in Employment
Fri 01:30 PM USD Producer Price Index (12-mth)
What happened lately
In the United States, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a modest increase of 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, mirroring the same rise observed in the preceding months of August and July, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past year, the all-items index ascended by 2.4% for the 12 months ending in September. This marks the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021, potentially indicating a slowing down in the inflationary pressures within the US economy.
In Canada, anticipations are centered around the Labor Force’s Net Change in Employment data due to be released on Friday, which is deemed to have a high impact. Employment indicators are crucial for gauging the health of the labor market and could provide insights into economic strength or weakness, influencing future monetary policy decisions.
On Friday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for the 12 months is also scheduled for release. Being a key indicator of inflation, the PPI reflects the price changes from the perspective of the seller and can serve as a precursor to consumer price changes. This release could provide further insights into inflationary trends in the US economy, potentially affecting currency valuations.
A rise in USDCAD on Thursday by 0.23% to 1.37427 could be indirectly impacted by these developments. The modest increase in US CPI suggests a steady, yet contained inflation level, potentially supporting a stable US dollar. If Friday’s US PPI data signals higher-than-anticipated inflation, it could strengthen the US dollar further. Conversely, if Canadian employment data positively surprises, it might bolster confidence in the Canadian dollar, potentially reversing USDCAD’s earlier uptick. Market participants will likely keep a close eye on these significant upcoming releases to adjust their positions and strategies accordingly, influencing USDCAD volatility.
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What can we expect from USDCAD today?
USDCAD on Thursday rose 0.23% to 1.37427. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone.
Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.37786 with break above could target R2 at 1.38145 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.37000 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.37752 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.73% over the past few days.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.38538 |
| R2 | 1.38145 |
| R1 | 1.37786 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.37393 |
| S1 | 1.37034 |
| S2 | 1.36641 |
| S3 | 1.36282 |
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