USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.03% to 0.85630. Week ending 2024-10-11 moved lower by -0.18%. What happened.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.03%	-2.5 Pips
Week 2024-10-11	-0.18%	-15.8 Pips
October	1.3%	109.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM Columbus Day
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, recent economic indicators show mixed signals. According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Index decreased to 68.9 in October from 70.1 in September. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable at 0% in September after a 0.2% rise in August. Excluding food and energy, the PPI saw a year-over-year increase of 2.8% in September, suggesting underlying inflationary pressures. However, the monthly change dropped to 0.2% from 0.3% in August. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% for September, consistent with the previous two months, and marked the smallest annual rise of 2.4% since February 2021. Furthermore, initial unemployment claims increased significantly to 258,000, the highest level since early August 2023, indicating potential labor market softening.

The recent weakening of the USDCHF, with a drop of 0.03% on Friday to 0.85630 and a weekly decline of 0.18%, reflects several factors. The decline in U.S. consumer sentiment may suggest reduced consumer spending, influencing the dollar’s strength negatively. The static PPI indicates subdued demand-side pressures in the economy, potentially pointing to slower future economic growth, which might affect the U.S. dollar’s attractiveness as a currency. The unemployment claims increase could signal labor market vulnerabilities, further impacting economic confidence. Together, these indicators might deter investors from holding onto the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on the USDCHF pair. Upcoming economic events such as the unemployment claims and monthly retail trade figures are expected to further provide insight into the U.S. economic outlook, potentially affecting the USDCHF dynamic depending on these outcomes.

From X (Twitter)

In September, Swiss inflation weakened to the slowest pace in more than three years, pointing to further monetary easing by the country’s central bank. #Swiss #Switzerland https://t.co/kRkXHQk971

— swissinfo.ch (@swissinfo_en) October 4, 2024

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.03% to 0.86. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-10-11, the pair dropped -0.18% or -15.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.85.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.86 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.85. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.85 or 0.85 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.85 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, USDCHF is up by 1.3% or 109.9 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau