USDJPY on Friday rose 0.26% to 149.09. Week ending 2024-10-11 rose 0.28%. What’s going on.

USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.26%	38.601 Pips
Week 242024-10-11	0.28%	41.1 Pips	October	3.74%	537.999 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM Columbus Day
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, several key economic indicators have been updated recently. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment revealed a decrease from 70.1 points in September to 68.9 points in October’s preliminary estimate. This decline indicates muted consumer confidence. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September remained stagnant at 0% month-over-month, following a modest increase of 0.2% in August. Notably, the PPI excluding volatile food and energy prices rose by 2.8% year-over-year but decreased month-over-month to 0.2% after a 0.3% increase in August. Furthermore, initial unemployment claims swelled significantly to 258,000 for the week ending October 5, the highest level since early August. Concerning the Consumer Price Index (CPI), it expanded 0.2% month-over-month and showed a 2.4% increase over the past year, marking the smallest annual increase since February 2021.

Regarding Japan, in August, the Total Cash Earnings over a 12-month period showed a decline from 3.6% in July to 3%. This decrease suggests a slowdown in wage growth, potentially impacting consumer spending and inflation dynamics.

The recent economic data releases will likely influence the USDJPY currency pair. The rising unemployment claims in the U.S., coupled with subdued consumer sentiment and stagnant production prices, may exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, the unchanged PPI and stable but low CPI growth could slightly balance these effects. Meanwhile, in Japan, slower wage growth might suggest potential currency weakness. Collectively, with a modest preference for the U.S. dollar observed, as reflected in the USDJPY’s slight rise to 149.09, market participants may continue to weigh these nuanced economic conditions in both countries. With upcoming U.S. data, such as initial unemployment claims and monthly retail trade figures, further fluctuations in the currency pair are possible as traders adjust their expectations based on new information.

From social media

In August, Japan's Total Cash Earnings (12-month) decreased to 3% from 3.6% in July, as reported in the August's Monthly Labour Survey.https://t.co/o9baJPL7IN

— Market Recap (@forexforum) October 13, 2024

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday rose 0.26% to 149.09. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone. For the week ending ,2024-10-11, the pair rose 0.28% or 41.1 pips higher.

Looking ahead, USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 147.34.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 151.41 (WR1) with break above could target 153.72 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 147.34 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 149.58 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of October, USDJPY is up by 3.74% or 537.999 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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