Audusd drops amid contrasting economic signals from us and australia

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.08%	-5.5 Pips
Week to-date	-0.51%	-34.1 Pips
October	-3.16%	-218.8 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

In the United States, economic indicators are showing positive signs. The Monthly Retail Trade excluding Automobiles increased to 0.5% in September, up from 0.1% in August, indicating stronger consumer spending outside of the automotive sector. Additionally, the general Monthly Retail Trade rose to 0.4% in the same month, reflecting overall consumer confidence. According to the Philadelphia Fed, the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey also showed improvement in October, rising significantly to 10.3 points from 1.7 points in September. Furthermore, the labor market appears robust, with initial unemployment insurance claims reducing to 241K in the week ending on 12 October, compared to 258K the previous week, as reported by the Department of Labor.

In Australia, the economic data presents a mixed outlook. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the labor market saw an uptick, with the Labour Force Monthly Employment Change increasing to 64.1K in September, up from 47.5K in August. This improvement is further supported by a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2%, and an increase in the full-time employment figures to 51.6K from -5.9K. However, part-time employment declined significantly, dropping to 12.5K from a revised 48.5K. Moreover, business sentiment seems to be waning, as the National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence index in Q3 fell to -6 points from a revised -2 points in Q2.

Given these economic developments, the movement of the AUDUSD pair could face contrasting forces. The positive economic indicators from the U.S., such as improved retail sales and manufacturing outlook, coupled with a stronger labor market, could bolster the U.S. dollar. In contrast, the mixed economic performance in Australia, despite improving employment figures, could cast uncertainty on the Australian dollar’s strength. As a result, these conditions likely contributed to the AUDUSD pair’s slight drop of 0.08% to 0.66969, reflecting its consolidation phase amidst the current economic signals from both countries. With no major events scheduled for the day, the market might remain relatively stable unless unexpected developments occur.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday dropped -0.08% to 0.66969. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.667 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.67102 or trades above daily pivot 0.66901. Break above could target R1 at 0.6717. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.667 (S1) and daily low of 0.66632 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.66632 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.51%.

Key levels to watch out:

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